Forecasting post-flight hip fracture probability using probabilistic modeling

[+] Author and Article Information
Beth E. Lewandowski

NASA John H. Glenn Research Center, Low-gravity Exploration Technology Branch, Cleveland, OH, 44135

Jerry G. Myers, Jr.

NASA John H. Glenn Research Center, Low-gravity Exploration Technology Branch, Cleveland, OH, 44135

1Corresponding author.

ASME doi:10.1115/1.4041164 History: Received November 10, 2015; Revised August 07, 2018


A probabilistic model predicts hip fracture probability for post-flight male astronauts during lateral fall scenarios from various heights. A biomechanical representation of the hip provides impact load. Correlations relate spaceflight bone mineral density (BMD) loss and post-flight BMD recovery to bone strength. Translations convert fracture risk index, the ratio of applied load to bone strength, to fracture probability. Parameter distributions capture uncertainty and Monte Carlo simulations provide probability outcomes. The fracture probability for a 1 m fall 0 days post-flight is 15% greater than preflight and remains 6% greater than pre-flight at 365 days post-flight. Probability quantification provides insight into how spaceflight induced BMD loss affects fracture probability. A bone loss rate reflecting improved exercise countermeasures and dietary intake further reduces the post-flight fracture probability to 6% greater than preflight at 0 days post-flight and 2% greater at 365 days post-flight. Quantification informs assessments of countermeasure effectiveness. When preflight BMD is one standard deviation below mean astronaut preflight BMD, fracture probability at 0 days post-flight is 34% greater than the preflight fracture probability calculated with mean BMD and 28% greater at 365 days post-flight. Quantification aids review of astronaut BMD fitness for duty standards. Increases in post-flight fracture probability are associated with an estimated 18% reduction in post-flight bone strength. Therefore, a 0.82 deconditioning coefficient modifies force application limits for crew vehicles.

Section 4: U. S. Gov Employees
Your Session has timed out. Please sign back in to continue.





Some tools below are only available to our subscribers or users with an online account.

Related Content

Customize your page view by dragging and repositioning the boxes below.

Related Journal Articles
Related eBook Content
Topic Collections

Sorry! You do not have access to this content. For assistance or to subscribe, please contact us:

  • TELEPHONE: 1-800-843-2763 (Toll-free in the USA)
  • EMAIL: asmedigitalcollection@asme.org
Sign In