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TECHNICAL PAPERS

Thermodynamic Model for Cold Water Survival

[+] Author and Article Information
W. G. Van Dorn

Scripps Institution of Oceanography, University of California, San Diego, 13652 Mercado Dr., Del Mar, CA 92014e-mail: wvandorn@ucsd.edu

J Biomech Eng 122(5), 541-544 (Feb 28, 2000) (4 pages) doi:10.1115/1.1289994 History: Received April 20, 1999; Revised February 28, 2000
Copyright © 2000 by ASME
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References

Alexander, L., 1945, “The Treatment of Shock From Prolonged Exposure to Cold, Especially in Water,” U.S. Department of Commerce Rpt. No. 250, Washington, DC.
Molnar,  G. W., 1946, “Survival of Hypthermia by Men Immersed in the Ocean,” J. Am. Med. Assoc., 131, pp. 1046–1050.
Rennie, D. W., 1987, “Human Thermal Balance at Rest and Exercise in Water: a Review,” Proc. 9th Symposium on Underwater and Hyperbaric Physiology, Undersea and Hyperbaric Medical Society, Bethesda, MD, pp. 95–107.
Hayward,  J. S., Eckerson,  J. D., and Collis,  M. L., 1975, “Thermal Balance and Survival Time Prediction of Man in Cold Water,” Can. J. Physiol. Pharmacol., 53, pp. 21–32.
Keatinge, W. R., 1969, “Survival in Cold Water,” in: The Physiology & Treatment of Immersion Hypothermia and of Drowning, Blackwell Scientific, Oxford.
Hayward, J. S., 1986, “The Physiology of Immersion Hypothermia,” in: The Nature and Treatment of Hypothermia, Univ. of Minnesota Press, pp. 3–19.
Tikuisis,  Peter, 1995, “Predicting Survival Times for Cold Exposure,” Int. J. Biometeorol., 39, pp. 94–102.
Tikuisis,  Peter, 1997, “Prediction of Survival Times at Sea Based on Observed Body Cooling Rates,” Aviat Space Environ. Med., 68, No. 5, pp. 441–448.
Pugh,  L. G. C. E., Edholm,  O. G., Fox,  R. H., Wolff,  H. S., Hervey,  G. R., Hammond,  W. H., Tanner,  J. M., and Whitehouse,  R. H., 1960, “A Physiological Study of Channel Swimming,” Clin. Sci., 19, pp. 257–273.
Rennie,  D. W., 1988, “Tissue Heat Transfer in Water: Lessons From the Korean Divers,” Med. Sci. Sports Exer., 20, No. 5, pp. S177–S184.
Bradner, H., 1985, “Guidlines for Predicting Heat Loss of SEAL Team Members in SDV and Free Swimming Operations,” Report No. GP-R-313031, General Physics Corporation, San Diego, CA.
Vogel,  X. Y., Patton,  J. F., Mello,  R. P., and Daniels,  W. L., 1986, “An Analysis of Aerobic Capacity in a Large United States Population,” J. Appl. Physiol., 60, No. 2, pp. 494–500.
McCance,  R. A., and Widdowson,  E. M., 1951, “A Method of Breaking Down the Body Weights of Living Persons Into Terms of Extracellular Fluid, Cell Mass, and Fat, and Some Applications of It to Physiology and Medicine,” Proc. R. Soc. London, 138, pp. 115–130.
Keatinge,  W. R., Coleshaw,  S. R. K., Millard,  C. E., and Axelsson,  J., 1986, “Exceptional Case of Survival in Cold Water,” Br. Med. J., 292, pp. 171–172.

Figures

Grahic Jump Location
Reproduction of Molnar’s Chart I 2: Duration of shipwreck survivors in ocean waters of diverse temperatures; dashed curve is a plot of Eq. (1) from 4.
Grahic Jump Location
Widely circulated representation of Hayward’s 6 passive cooling model. Heavy curve is same as dashed curve in Fig. 1. Shaded band is estimated area of uncertainty (see text).
Grahic Jump Location
Proposed survival model. Curves were computed from Eq. (3) for 6 mm increments of body fat=2 mm neoprene foam, any combination of which can be combined to give total whole-body insulation. Although intended for passive survival, curves also provide reasonable estimates for onset of hypothermia among expert swimmers.

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